66

126

equally frequent in the long run, the only sense
that it can usefully bear, is a monstrously
unwarrantable assumption. These
eleven proportions, then, being equally
possible, he calculates in how
many different equally probable
ways the first five toys would be
dutiable in each of these ways. This
is shown in the table.

After that first error, the rest of
the calculation is unexceptionable
except for certain simplifications which I
make, in order to avoid the integral calculus.
All the ways in which the observed
event could have been brought about
are reckoned up, and the probabilities