60

114

did not formulate it in general terms. This
answer is that we are justified in drawing an
induction because the conclusion of an induction
is rendered probable by the premisses, according
to the doctrine of chances. This I deny, and
maintain that the doctrine of chances, rightly
applied, does not give any determinate probability
to an inductive conclusion unless
we make an assumption which really
renders the reasoning deductive.

In order to show what sort of reasoning
it is by which the Laplacians support their
dogma, I will show you how they would
calculate the probabilities in an example.